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The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with . Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't seem to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected player."
Although highly regarded cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with numerous bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Basically, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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